Planning a long-term zero carbon transition pathway

The SUMP-PLUS Policy Brief #1, released in December 2022, addresses the pressing issue of decarbonizing urban transport as part of broader efforts to combat climate change. In the context of the European Union’s Green Deal and its ambitious target of achieving net-zero carbon emissions by 2050, this brief explores the critical role that cities and their transport systems play in reducing carbon emissions. Transport is a major contributor to urban CO2 emissions, accounting for approximately 25%, with road transport alone responsible for 72% of these emissions. Despite its significant impact, the transport sector has been notably slow in reducing its carbon footprint, necessitating urgent and sustained efforts to align urban mobility with global climate goals. 

The brief emphasizes the importance of Sustainable Urban Mobility Plans (SUMPs), which have become a standard tool for urban transport planning across Europe. However, given the long-term nature of the zero-carbon target, it is clear that a single SUMP cycle, typically spanning 5 to 10 years, is insufficient. The brief introduces the concept of a “Transition Pathway” as a solution, a long-term strategic framework that cities can use to guide their journey toward zero-carbon mobility. This approach involves the systematic identification and implementation of policies, governance reforms, and cross-sector collaborations necessary to meet the 2050 target. 

One of the key challenges identified in the brief is the lack of integration between high-level climate strategies and operational planning at the city level. While many cities have developed Climate Plans and Sustainable Energy and Climate Action Plans (SECAPs), these often lack the detailed, sector-specific actions needed to reduce carbon emissions effectively, particularly in transport. The brief proposes a seven-step process for developing a Transition Pathway, which includes assembling a multidisciplinary team, gathering baseline data, developing a city vision, selecting and sequencing policies, and building a coherent narrative to guide long-term planning. 

Moreover, the brief underscores the need for cities to adopt systems thinking, linking zero-carbon targets to other urban goals such as economic growth, public health, and equity. It calls for stronger alignment between strategic long-term planning and the short-to-medium-term measures outlined in SUMPs, ensuring that cities can adapt and refine their strategies over time as new technologies and policies emerge. 

In conclusion, the Policy Brief provides a comprehensive roadmap for cities to decarbonize their transport systems and contribute to the broader fight against climate change. It highlights the importance of long-term planning, cross-sector collaboration, and continuous adaptation to achieve sustainable and resilient urban mobility by 2050. 

Key recommendations

The Policy Brief offers several key recommendations to guide cities in their efforts to decarbonize urban transport and achieve the ambitious goal of zero carbon emissions by 2050. These recommendations emphasize the importance of strategic planning, cross-sector collaboration, and the integration of various urban policy areas. Here are the main recommendations:  

1. Adopt Long-Term Planning Approaches: Cities are encouraged to embrace long-term planning frameworks, particularly through the development of “Transition Pathways.” These pathways should guide cities from their current state to the zero-carbon target by 2050. This approach involves setting clear, long-term goals for carbon reduction and systematically breaking these goals down into manageable, time-sequenced strategies that align with the city’s Sustainable Urban Mobility Plans (SUMPs). Transition Pathways should be flexible enough to incorporate new innovations and adjustments based on monitoring and evaluation.
2. Align Strategic and Operational Planning: A critical recommendation is to ensure stronger alignment between long-term strategic goals and short-to-medium-term operational plans. This means that long-term carbon reduction strategies need to be integrated into the SUMP cycle, ensuring that the strategies are not only visionary but also actionable within the timeframe of current and future SUMPs. The brief suggests that cities should start by defining high-level carbon strategies and then translate these into specific, implementable measures that fit within a 5 to 10-year planning horizon.
3. Strengthen Systems Thinking: Cities are advised to apply systems thinking in their planning processes, which involves understanding and addressing the interconnections between transport and other urban sectors. The brief highlights the importance of linking zero-carbon targets with broader city objectives such as economic growth, public health, well-being, and equity. By doing so, cities can develop more holistic and effective strategies that address multiple urban challenges simultaneously, ensuring that transport policies contribute to the overall resilience and sustainability of urban areas.
4. Enhance Cross-Sector Collaboration and Governance: Effective decarbonization requires robust collaboration across different sectors and levels of government. The brief recommends that cities work closely with regional and national authorities, as well as with stakeholders from various sectors, to secure the necessary funding, legislative support, and data needed for implementing carbon reduction measures. This includes re-skilling staff, ensuring adequate human resources, and making legislative and administrative changes where necessary. Governance reforms should be pursued to create an enabling environment for implementing the selected policy measures.
5. Promote Citizen Engagement: The brief highlights the importance of engaging citizens and stakeholders in the planning and implementation processes. With climate change recognized as a critical global issue, cities have an opportunity to involve their residents in discussions about the future of urban mobility and the impacts of climate change. By fostering greater participation, cities can ensure that their strategies are not only effective but also enjoy public support. 

These recommendations provide a comprehensive guide for cities aiming to transform their transport systems and contribute meaningfully to the global fight against climate change.